The crash severity impacts of fixed roadside objects

INTRODUCTION: This study analyzes the in-service performance of roadside hardware on the entire urban State Route system in Washington State by developing multivariate statistical models of injury severity in fixed-object crashes using discrete outcome theory. The objective is to provide deeper insight into significant factors that affect crash severities involving fixed roadside objects, through improved statistical efficiency along with disaggregate and multivariate analysis. METHOD: The developed models are multivariate nested logit models of injury severity and they are estimated with statistical efficiency using the method of full information maximum likelihood. RESULTS: The results show that leading ends of guardrails and bridge rails, along with large wooden poles (e.g. trees and utility poles) increase the probability of fatal injury. The face of guardrails is associated with a reduction in the probability of evident injury, and concrete barriers are shown to be associated with a higher probability of lower severities. Other variables included driver characteristics, which showed expected results, validating the model. For example, driving over the speed limit and driving under the influence of alcohol increase the probability of fatal accidents. Drivers that do not use seatbelts are associated with an increase in the probability of more severe injuries, even when an airbag is activated. IMPACT ON INDUSTRY: The presented models show the contribution of guardrail leading ends toward fatal injuries. It is therefore important to use well-designed leading ends and to upgrade badly performing leading ends on guardrails and bridges. The models also indicate the importance of protecting vehicles from crashes with rigid poles and tree stumps, as these are linked with greater severities and fatalities.     

TECHNOLOGY,INSTITUTIONS, AND SOCIAL GOALS1

ABSTRACT: The cries of pending water crises are usually cast in terms of water availability and/or water quality. Unfortunately, the real factors underlying a perceived crisis are often overlooked and the solutions prescribed are fax from optimal when measured in either economic or social terms. Today's technology outstrips its implementation, yesterday's solutions are imposed on a new breed of problems, and a static game is being played in a dynamic world. There is a need for the application of innovative and revolutionary tactics, for modernizing institutions, and for educating technologists and decision makers alike in the art of communicating their views and skills. This is the challenge. If it is met, some predicted crises will not materialize, and many others will be diminished in scale. An exciting opportunity exists to extend the boundaries of a new era in water management.     

Perfluorinated chemicals in selected residents of the American continent

Perfluorinated chemicals (PFCs) are used in multiple consumer products. Perfluorooctane sulfonic acid (PFOS) and perfluorooctanoic acid (PFOA), the most widely studied PFCs, may be potential developmental, reproductive, and systemic toxicants. Although PFCs seem to be ubiquitous contaminants found both in humans and animals, geographic differences may exist in human exposure patterns to PFCs. We measured 11 PFCs in 23 pooled serum samples collected in the United States from 1990 through 2002, and in serum samples collected in 2003 from 44 residents from Trujillo, Peru. PFOS and PFOA were detected in all the pooled samples; perfluorohexane sulfonic acid (PFHxS) was detected in 21. Median concentrations were 31.1 micrograms per liter (mug/l, PFOS), 11.6 microg/l (PFOA), and 2 microg/l (PFHxS). The 90th percentile concentrations of PFCs in the 44 Peruvian residents were 0.7 microg/l (PFOS), 0.1 microg/l (PFOA), and <0.3 microg/l (PFHxS). The frequencies of detection were 20% (PFOS), 25% (PFOA), and 9% (PFHxS). The frequent detection of selected PFCs in the pooled samples from the United States and the lack of clear concentration trends based on a year of collection suggest a sustained widespread exposure to these compounds among US residents, at least since the 1990s. By contrast, the much lower frequency of detection and concentration ranges of PFCs in Peru suggest a lower exposure of Peruvians to PFCs compared with North Americans. Genetic variability, diet, lifestyle, or a combination of all these may contribute to the different patterns of human exposure to PFCs in the United States and Peru.     

Biomechanical response targets for physical and computational models of the pediatric trunk

Objectives: This paper quantifies pediatric thoracoabdominal response to belt loading to guide the scaling of existing adult response data and to assess the validity of a juvenile porcine abdominal model for application to the development of physical and computational models of the human child. Methods: Table-top belt-loading experiments were performed on 6, 7, and 15 year-old pediatric post-mortem human subjects (PMHS). Response targets are reported for diagonal belt and distributed loading of the anterior thorax and for horizontal belt loading of the abdomen. Results: The pediatric PMHS exhibited abdominal response similar to the swine, including the degree of rate sensitivity. The thoraces of the PMHS were as stiff as, or slightly more stiff than, published adult corridors. Conclusions: An assessment of age-related changes in thoracic stiffness suggests that the effective stiffness of the chest increases through the fourth decade of life and then decreases, resulting in stiffness values similar for children and elderly adults.     

Evaluation of geometrically personalized THUMS pedestrian model response against sedan–pedestrian PMHS impact test data

Objective: Evaluating the biofidelity of pedestrian finite element models (PFEM) using postmortem human subjects (PMHS) is a challenge because differences in anthropometry between PMHS and PFEM could limit a model's capability to accurately capture cadaveric responses. Geometrical personalization via morphing can modify the PFEM geometry to match the specific PMHS anthropometry, which could alleviate this issue. In this study, the Total Human Model for Safety (THUMS) PFEM (Ver 4.01) was compared to the cadaveric response in vehicle–pedestrian impacts using geometrically personalized models.

Methods: The AM50 THUMS PFEM was used as the baseline model, and 2 morphed PFEM were created to the anthropometric specifications of 2 obese PMHS used in a previous pedestrian impact study with a mid-size sedan. The same measurements as those obtained during the PMHS tests were calculated from the simulations (kinematics, accelerations, strains), and biofidelity metrics based on signals correlation (correlation and analysis, CORA) were established to compare the response of the models to the experiments. Injury outcomes were predicted deterministically (through strain-based threshold) and probabilistically (with injury risk functions) and compared with the injuries reported in the necropsy.

Results: The baseline model could not accurately capture all aspects of the PMHS kinematics, strain, and injury risks, whereas the morphed models reproduced biofidelic response in terms of trajectory (CORA score = 0.927 ± 0.092), velocities (0.975 ± 0.027), accelerations (0.862 ± 0.072), and strains (0.707 ± 0.143). The personalized THUMS models also generally predicted injuries consistent with those identified during posttest autopsy.

Conclusions: The study highlights the need to control for pedestrian anthropometry when validating pedestrian human body models against PMHS data. The information provided in the current study could be useful for improving model biofidelity for vehicle–pedestrian impact scenarios.     

Incorporating evolutionary processes into population viability models

We examined how ecological and evolutionary (eco‐evo) processes in population dynamics could be better integrated into population viability analysis (PVA). Complementary advances in computation and population genomics can be combined into an eco‐evo PVA to offer powerful new approaches to understand the influence of evolutionary processes on population persistence. We developed the mechanistic basis of an eco‐evo PVA using individual‐based models with individual‐level genotype tracking and dynamic genotype–phenotype mapping to model emergent population‐level effects, such as local adaptation and genetic rescue. We then outline how genomics can allow or improve parameter estimation for PVA models by providing genotypic information at large numbers of loci for neutral and functional genome regions. As climate change and other threatening processes increase in rate and scale, eco‐evo PVAs will become essential research tools to evaluate the effects of adaptive potential, evolutionary rescue, and locally adapted traits on persistence.     

The search for an alternative to piped water and sewer systems in the Alaskan Arctic

Forty-two communities in rural Alaska are considered unserved or underserved with water and sewer infrastructure. Many challenges exist to provide centralized piped water and sewer infrastructure to the homes, and they are exacerbated by decreasing capital funding. Unserved communities in rural Alaska experience higher rates of disease, supporting the recommendation that sanitation infrastructure should be provided. Organizations are pursuing alternative solutions to conventional piped water and sewer in order to maximize water use and reuse for public health. This paper reviews initiatives led by the State of Alaska, the Alaska Native Tribal Health Consortium, and the Yukon Kuskokwim Health Corporation to identify and develop potential long-term solutions appropriate and acceptable to rural communities. Future developments will likely evolve based on the lessons learned from the initiatives. Recommendations include Alaska-specific research needs, increased end-user participation in the design process, and integrated monitoring, evaluation, and information dissemination in future efforts.     

Model of Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) energetics predicts distribution on Honshu, Japan.

Understanding what determines a species' range is a central objective in ecology and evolutionary biology. It has important applications for predicting species distributions and how they might respond to environmental perturbations. This paper describes a mechanistic approach to predict past and present distribution of the Japanese serow (Capricornis crispus) on Honshu, Japan. We applied state-of-the-art microclimate and animal biophysical/behavioral models coupled with climate and vegetation data to estimate the distribution of potential range expansion under protection. We tested the model results against detailed empirical distribution data from the Ministry of the Environment for a five-prefecture area in central Honshu. We also applied the models to time-series land use/cover maps to investigate the historical transitions in habitat suitability during 1947-1999 in the Arai-Keinan region. This is the first time to our knowledge that mechanistic models have successfully predicted the landscape scale distribution of a mammal species in the absence of other animal species interactions, such as predators. In this case, animal energetics/behavior-plant interactions seem to be critical. Forest cover appears to be important in summer and winter for suitable serow habitats. The energetics model results indicate that the serow can overheat in some open environments in midday hours in summer. In winter, simulation results suggested that forest cover provides effective refuge to avoid increased metabolic demands of cold temperatures and strong winds. The model simulations suggested that land use/cover changes documented during 1947-1999 resulted in increased suitable serow habitat due to expanding forest cover from agricultural marginalization and ecological succession. The models provide a unique tool for estimating species' range expansion under protection or for selecting suitable reintroduction sites.     

Lethal critical body residues as measures of Cd,Pb, and Zn bioavailability and toxicity in the earthworm<Emphasis Type="Italic">Eisenia fetida</Emphasis>

Background

Earthworm heavy metal concentrations (critical body residues, CBRs) may be the most relevant measures of heavy metal bioavailability in soils and may be linkable to toxic effects in order to better assess soil ecotoxicity. However, as earthworms possess physiological mechanisms to secrete and/or sequester absorbed metals as toxicologically inactive forms, total earthworm metal concentrations may not relate well with toxicity.

Objective

The objectives of this research were to: i) develop LD₅₀s (total earthworm metal concentration associated with 50% mortality) for Cd, Pb, and Zn; ii) evaluate the LD₅₀ for Zn in a lethal Zn-smelter soil; iii) evaluate the lethal mixture toxicity of Cd, Pb, and Zn using earthworm metal concentrations and the toxic unit (TU) approach; and iv) evaluate total and fractionated earthworm concentrations as indicators of sublethal exposure.

Methods

Earthworms (Eisenia fetida (Savigny)) were exposed to artificial soils spiked with Cd, Pb, Zn, and a Cd?Pb?Zn equitoxic mixture to estimate lethal CBRs and mixture toxicity. To evaluate the CBR developed for Zn, earthworms were also exposed to Zn-contaminated field soils receiving three different remediation treatments. Earthworm metal concentrations were measured using a procedure devised to isolate toxicologically active metal burdens via separation into cytosolic and pellet fractions.

Results and Discussion

Lethal CBRs inducing 50% mortality (LD₅₀, 95% CI) were calculated to be 5.72 (3.54–7.91), 3.33 (2.97–3.69), and 8.19 (4.78–11.6) mmol/kg for Cd, Pb, and Zn, respectively. Zn concentrations of dead earthworms exposed to a lethal remediated Zn-smelter soil were 3-fold above the LD₅₀ for Zn and comparable to earthworm concentrations in lethal Zn-spiked artificial soils, despite a 14-fold difference in total soil Zn concentration between lethal field and artificial soils. An evaluation of the acute mixture toxicity of Cd, Pb, and Zn in artificial soils using the Toxic Unit (TU) approach revealed an LD₅₀ (95% CI) of 0.99 (0.57–1.41) TU, indicating additive toxicity.

Conclusions

Total Cd, Pb, and Zn concentrations in earthworms were good indicators of lethal metal exposure, and enabled the calculation of LD₅₀s for lethality. The Zn-LD₅₀ developed in artificial soil was applicable to earthworms exposed to remediated Zn-smelter soil, despite a 14-fold difference in total soil Zn concentrations. Mixture toxicity evaluated using LD₅₀s from each single metal test indicated additive mixture toxicity among Cd, Pb, and Zn. Fractionation of earthworm tissues into cytosolic and pellet digesis yielded mixed results for detecting differences in exposure at the sublethal level.

Recommendation and Outlook

CBRs are useful in describing acute Cd, Pb, and Zn toxicity in earthworms, but linking sublethal exposure to total and/or fractionated residues may be more difficult. More research on detoxification, regulation, and tissue and subcellular partitioning of heavy metals in earthworms and other invertebrates is needed to establish the link between body residue and sublethal exposure and toxicity.